Homebuilder confidence in the South jumped to the highest level since August, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
- M-O-M: Homebuilder confidence in the South jumped to an index of 49 to start 2024, a 10-point jump from November and the highest level since August.
- Y-O-Y: Homebuilder confidence is up 10 points from the same last year.
NOTE: The 25.6% jump month-over-month was the biggest jump since June 2020 and excluding Covid, it was the biggest jump since October 2011 when the index jumped 4 points to 19.
National. The national index jumped to 44 in January, up 7 points from December and the highest level since September.
- Optimism: Builders are quite optimistic for the new year as the index for single-family sales the next 6 months skyrocketed to 57 in January, up 12 points from December and the highest level since July.
- Current single-family sales jumped 7 points to an index of 48 while traffic of prospective buyers rose 5 points to an index of 29.
Other Regions. The Northeast saw a slight increase to an index of 56 in January, the third straight month over 50. The West jumped up to the number three spot with an index of 38, a 9-point jump from December, and the Midwest was flat with an index of 35 to start the year.
Analysis. Robert Dietz, NAHB Chief Economist, said falling great will help with the demand side of the equation but supply side issues still exist. “Mortgage rates have decreased by more than 110 basis points since late October per Freddie Mac, lifting the future sales expectation component in the HMI into positive territory for the first time since August…As home building expands in 2024, the market will see growing supply-side challenges in the form of higher prices and/or shortages of lumber, lots and labor.”