The labor market remained hotter than expected as we closed out 2023, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, up from 173k in November and the highest level since September.
- The unemployment rate held at 3.7% for the second straight month.
Government Jobs. Employment in the Government increased by 52,000 in December with local government adding 37k and the federal government adding 7k.
- Leisure & hospitality took the number two spot with 40,000 new jobs followed by health care (+38,000) social assistance (+21k), and construction (+17k).
- On the flip side, transportation & warehousing was the only industry to shed jobs losing 23,000 in December.
Wages. Wages continue to outpace inflation on a monthly and yearly basis. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose to $34.27, up 0.4% from the previous month which ties for the top monthly increase all year (happened five times). Prices are projected to have risen 0.2% in December.
- Average hourly earnings are now up 4.1% when compared to the same time last year. Consumer prices are expected to be up 3.2% in December.
Revisions. October was revised down by 45,000 to +105,000, and the change for November was revised down by 26,000 to +173,000.
BOTTOM LINE: If the labor market remains hot it is unlikely we will get any cuts from the Fed better yet four of them…