Job openings fell under 10M for the first time in almost two years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS report.
- The number of job openings on the last business day of February fell to 9.9 million, lower than January’s 10.56M and the lowest level since May 2021 (9.84M).
- The job openings rate fell to 6.0%, down from 6.4% in January and the lowest level since April 2021.
Swing & A Miss. Economists predicted a much smaller drop of openings to 10.4M.
Big Drop. Job openings fell by 635k thanks to 278,000 fewer openings in professional and business services followed by health care & social assistance(-150,000) and transportation, warehousing, &utilities (-145,000).
- Job openings actually increased in construction by 129,000 and 38k in arts, entertainment, and recreation.
Quits. The number of quits increased to 4.0 million thanks to a 115k jump in professional and business services, a 93k increase in accommodation and food services, and 31k in wholesale trade.
- Quits are still high from a historical perspective but the rate is down 11% from the highs seen in 2021 & 2022.
BOTTOM LINE: For the first time since the rate hikes began, Powell & the Fed must love this report. Job openings not only fell more than expected, but they fell to levels not seen in almost two years. We still have a long way to go (the two-decade average is about 4.5 million) but we are moving in the right direction.