For the first time in 22 months, home price growth fell into the single digits, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report.
- Y-O-Y: Home prices nationwide increased year-over-year by 8.6% in November 2022, this is down from 10.1% in October and is down more than half from the peak we saw in March and April (+20.9%).
- M-O-M: Home prices declined 0.2% in November from the prior month. This is the sixth straight monthly decline and is higher than the 0.1% drop reported in October.
Crystal Ball. Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from November to December and on a year-over-year basis 2.8% growth in November 2023.
Miami Remains On Top. Despite a slight dip in November, Miami is now double the growth of the next closest major metro area. Home prices in Miami are up 21.3% year-over-year in November. This is more than double the 10.6% growth Houston reported which was the only other major metro area still in double-digit territory.
- Phoenix took the number three spot with 8.1% growth followed by Las Vegas (+7.7%) and San Diego (+6.8%).
South On Top. The top three growth states were all in the South with Florida leading the way at 18% followed by South Carolina (+13.9%) and Georgia (+13.6%).
Analysis. Selma Hepp- Executive, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic, pointed out that 2023 is a hard year to predict as rates fall along with prices. “And while the recent decline in mortgage rates may bode well for the housing market, potential homebuyers are grappling with the idea of buying amid possible further price declines and a continued inventory shortage. Nevertheless, with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023.“