So much for the holiday shopping season. Retail sales fell slightly more than expected in November, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.
- M-O-M: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales were $689.4 billion in November, down 0.6% from the previous month and worse than the 0.1% economists were projecting.
- Y-O-Y: Retail sales were up 6.5% when compared to the same time last year.
Bad Month. Department stores took the biggest hit in November with a 2.9% decline month-over-month. Furniture stores weren’t far behind with a 2.6% drop followed by building & garden stores (-2.5%), car dealers & part shops (-2.3%), and electronic stores (-1.5%)
- It wasn’t a negative month for everyone, restaurants had the best month with a 0.9% gain compared to October followed by grocery stores (+0.8%) and health & personal care stores (0.7%).
Don’t Call It A Comeback. Gas Stations (duh) are having the best year with sales up 16.2% compared to November 2021. Restaurants & bars took the number two spot with a 14.1% increase followed by miscellaneous stores (12.1%) and grocery stores (+8.1%).
Inflation Reminder: Retails sales are not adjusted for inflation so even with 6.5% growth in retail sales real sales are actually down 0.6% when you adjust for inflation because the latest CPI has prices up 7.1%.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumers are clearly reaching their limit with regards to prices. As consumers pull back on spending this will slow growth which will eventually put downward pressure on inflation and the labor market.