Rate lock volume fell for the 8th straight month with total volume falling 21.5% in November, according to the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor report.
- Purchase demand is down 22.1% for the month and is now down 50.2% when compared to last year.
- Refis continued to plummet with cash-out refis down 18.4% for the month and 86.3% for the year while rate\terms were down 17.1% for the month and are now down 93.2% year-over-year.
More Than Half. As you can see from the numbers above rate lock volume has fallen more than half with the total volume down 67.8% to be exact.
Credit Risk. Despite the slowdown, credit standards have barely budged. Purchase loans fell one point to an average score of 746 for the month of November and are only down 3 points from last year. Rate/term refis held at 736 and are actually up 1 point from last year.
- Cash-outs are the outlier category that has seen some big moves. The average credit score fell 4 points in November to 686 which is down 40 points from the same time last year.
Price. The average loan amount fell 2.2% month-over-month and is now down 6.1% when compared to the peak in April ($362,000).
- The average purchase price also fell this month with a 1.3% drop to $414,000.
BOTTOM LINE: With rate lock volume down over 50% I think it’s safe to say housing is in a full-blown recession…