Last week we got Zillow’s top five predictions for 2023. This week, Redfin has given us twelve predictions for the following year. Let’s focus on the top three.
- Home Sales. Home sales have been falling since the market slowdown started in the summer. Redfin does not believe we will see much of a reversal in 2023. “We expect about 16% fewer existing home sales in 2023 than 2022, landing at 4.3 million…That’s fewer home sales than any year since 2011.”
- Mortgage Rates. The historic mortgage rate climb is without a doubt the biggest real estate story of 2022. Redfin, however, does not believe rates will continue to climb next year. “We expect 30-year fixed mortgage rates to gradually decline to around 5.8% by the end of the year, with the average 2023 homebuyer’s rate sitting at about 6.1%.”
- Migration. Migration from the West and Northeast to the Midwest and South was the story of the pandemic. Redfin is predicting this migration level will fall but does not believe it will fall to pre-pandemic levels. “We expect the share of Americans relocating from one metro to another will slow to about 20% in 2023, down from 24% this year. That’s still above pre-pandemic levels of around 18%.”
Redfin also dives into rental markets and the impact they will have on wannabe buyers, real estate investors, and generation Z.