Home price growth almost fell into the single-digits in October after two years of double-digit growth, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Insight report.
- Y-O-Y: Home prices nationwide were up 10.1% year-over-year in October, this is down from the 11.4% reported in September and is down more than half from the peak we saw in March and April (+20.9%).
- M-O-M: Home prices declined for the fourth straight month with a 0.1% month-over-month drop in October, this is smaller than the 0.5% decline in September but is the fifth straight month of declines.
Silver Lining. Similar to the Black Knight report, the year-over-year slowdown, 1.3 percentage points, was the smallest drop since May and the monthly decline was the smallest since declines started in July.
Crystal Ball. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will remain unchanged in November and on a year-over-year basis by home prices will be up 4.1% in October 2023.
Miami Still Hot. As the major metros cool all over the nation, Miami continues to see red-hot growth. Miami is almost double the nearest major metro area with 22.6% year-over-year growth in October, this is down from the 25.6% reported in September and the 27.1% peak in August.
- Houston took the number two spot with 12.0% year-over-year growth followed by Phoenix (+10.9%), Las Vegas (+10.4%), and San Diego (+9.0%).
Analysis. Selma Hepp, Economist for CoreLogic, said that even though the housing market has seen a sharp decline there are reasons to be optimistic. ”Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October, and it will move in that direction for the rest of the year and into 2023. However, while some housing markets have seen significant recalibration since the spring price peak and are likely to post losses in 2023, further deteriorating for-sale inventory, some relief in mortgage rate increases and relatively positive economic news may help eventually stabilize home prices.”