It appears that higher prices may finally be impacting retail sales, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.
- M-O-M: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September were unchanged at $684 billion.
- Y-O-Y: Retail sales were up 8.2% when compared to the same time last year.
Month-Over-Month. Miscellaneous retailers had the worst month with a 2.5% drop from August followed by gas stations (-1.4%), electronic stores (-0.8%), and furniture and sporting goods stores were both down 0.7%
- On the flip side, department stores had the best month with sales up 1.3% from August followed by general merchandise stores that were up 0.7% and clothing, health, restaurants, and online retailers were all up 0.5% for the month.
Year-Over-Year. Despite the monthly drop, gas stations are still having the best year with sales up 20.6% followed by online retailers (+11.6%), restaurants& bars (+11.4%), and home improvement stores (+9.7%).
- Only one retailer was down for the year and that was electronic stores with sales off 8.6%.
Reminder. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and with the latest CPI report showing a price increase of 0.4% that would mean real retail sales are down 0.4% for the month.
BOTTOM LINE: After months and months of record-high inflation these elevated prices might finally be catching up with consumers.