Inventory growth began slowing a little over a month ago and has now hit a brick wall, according to Altos Research’s weekly report…(Altos)
- Active inventory of single-family homes on the market was unchanged from last week at 551,000.
- Inventory forecasts have been downgraded to just 50,000 at the end of the year.
REMINDER: From mid-April to mid-July inventory levels were increase 5-7% week-over-week. They then slowed to 3% at the end of July and then fell to around 1.0% in August.
Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos, was pretty blunt about all those pundits predicting a housing crash of recent increases in inventory. “…if your view of housing is based evidence from June and July, you’re probably drawing the wrong conclusion. What we now know is that we’re going to start 2023 as yet another year with a pretty severe shortage of homes for sale.”
Not alone. Inventory levels were not alone in leveling out this week. 39% of the homes on the market have had to cut their price recently which is only up 0.6% week -over-week. This was the slowest increase since April 18th when inventory levels started to climb and the market started showing signs of cooling.
Home prices fall. The median price of the newly listed cohort fell by 1.25% this week to $393,900. Simenson argues if you are listing now you missed the high. “If you’re listing your house now, you’re doing so at a discount to what you would have 6 months ago