We still are not seeing any signs of a slow down in the housing market as year-over-year growth nearly hit 20% in July, according to the latest Case-Shiller Index…(Case-Shiller)
- Y-O-Y: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 19.7% annual gain in July. This is up from 18.7% in the previous month.
- M-O-M: The U.S. National Index posted a 1.6% month-over-month increase in July which is actually down from June when the index reported a 2.2% increase.
Phoenix continues to lead the way with a whopping 32.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 27.8% increase and Seattle with a 25.5% increase.
- The 20-City Composite got even closer to 20% with 19.9% year-over-year gain, up from 19.1% in the previous month.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI, said that we may be beyond the COVID-19 surge…
- “July 2021 is the fourth consecutive month in which the growth rate of housing prices set a record…This demand surge may simply represent an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in locational preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. More time and data will be required to analyze this question.”
For the second month in a row, the Case-Shiller index showed bigger growth than the FHFA Home Price Index…(FHFA)
- Y-O-Y: House prices were up 19.2% from July 2020 to July 2021. This is higher than the 17.4% annual growth in June.
- M-O-M: House prices were up 1.4% from the previous month which is slightly lower than the 1.6% increase reported in June.
NOTE: The mountain region saw the biggest annual price appreciation at 25.6% in July. Followed by the Pacific (+22.0%), New England (+20.8), South Atlantic (+20.2%), and East South Central (+18.3%)
- The biggest monthly increase was in the South Atlantic which saw a 1.9% increase. Followed by East South Central (+1.7%), Middle Atlantic, West South Central, and Mountain all up 1.6%.
TYLER’S 🔥 TAKE: Today’s take isn’t so much mine as it is Bill McBride’s. He told me in June on Twitter that “My guess is the YoY peak will be before the August report (Case-Shiller is a 3 month average, so it really lags).” Month-over-month has already started to fall could August show the first y-o-y decline since August 2020?