July was a mixed month for home construction, according to the Census Bureau’s monthly report on new residential construction… (Census Bureau)
- M-O-M: Privately‐owned housing starts fell 7.0% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,534,000.
- Y-O-Y: Starts were up 2.5% when compared to the same time last year.
The entire month wasn’t negative as building permits did see monthly and annual gains…
- M-O-M: Building permits were up 2.6% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,635,000.
- Y-O-Y: Permits were also up 6.0% when compared to the same time last year.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS actually had a pretty good month up 5.6% when compared to June and were up 3.8% when compared to the same time last year.
NOTE: The all-important single-family category also had a mixed month…
- Single family homes Month-over-month saw starts drop 4.5%, authorizations were up 1.7%, and completions were up 3.6%.
SWING AND A MIXED: Forecasts were much more optimistic about starts (1.6M vs 1.53M) but they were more pessimistic about permits (1.61M vs 1.63M) than the data showed.
July was a mixed month. Most headlines will focus on the plummet in starts, but that could be missing the forest for the trees. A tight labor market and high prices are dissuading many builders from starting new projects. But it is not stopping them from completing projects and the increased permits mean they are optimistic about the future. So, as I said, a mixed month.