For the fourth year in a row, well over 20 million Americans were planning to buy a home in the new year, according to NerdWallet survey conducted online by the Harris Poll.
- About 28 million Americans, or 11%, plan on purchasing a home in the next 12 months. The range on this question has stayed between 9-11% since the question was first asked four years ago.
- NerdWallet notes in the release that even in 2021 when the market was on fire, only about 6 million existing homes were sold. So Americans might overestimate their ability or willingness to buy a home.
Price Problems. The 11% of Americans who are hoping to buy a home are also hoping to spend around $269,200. For that to be possible, a homeowner would have to put down almost $100k using the national median existing-home sales price of $366,900 in December.
- The Midwest could be a hotspot as the median existing home price ($262,000) was below the price point hopeful buyers were looking to spend.
Lost Confidence. About one-third (32%) of Americans feel worse about their ability to buy a home this year versus 2022. This is up from the 25% who felt the same way from 2021 to 2022. 58% feel worse because of the economy in 2023, 57% feel worse because of higher rates, and 57% feel worse because of higher home prices.
- Two-thirds (67%) of Americans say a housing market crash is imminent in the next three years.
Analysis. Holden Lewis, Nerdwallet Home and Mortgages expert said 2023 could be the first buyer friendly environment in over three years. “Competition among buyers was fierce in 2020 and 2021, and then mortgage rates skyrocketed in 2022. The housing market finally might be friendlier to buyers in 2023. Mortgage rates could fall, and home prices might decline in some places.”