Home Price Growth Falls Into Single Digits For The First Time In Almost Two Years

For the first time in almost two years, home price growth fell into the single digits, according to the October Case-Shiller index.

  • Y-O-Y: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 9.2% annual gain in October, down from 10.7% in the previous month and the lowest level since November 2020 when the index was also at 9.2%.
  • M-O-M: The U.S. National Index posted a -0.5% month-over-month decrease in October, this was smaller than the 1.0% drop reported in September and the smallest drop since July.

Slowing Slow Down. Economists thought the 20-city composite growth was going to slow to 8.2% but it actually slowed to 8.6% in October.

Florida Still Hot. Florida is the only state with a city still reporting growth over 20% and they have two of them. Miami took the top spot with 21.0% year-over-year growth followed by Tampa (+20.5%) and Charlotte (+15.0%).

  • The Southeast (+17.9%) and South (+17.0%) were the strongest regions by far, with gains more than double those of the Northeast, Midwest, and West
  • San Fransico is now only up 0.6% year-over-year, down from 2.3% in September. It looks very likely that San Fran will end the year in negative territory

Analysis. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, noted that even though home prices are up year-over-year they are down from the mid-summer peak. “The National Composite Index fell -0.5% for the month, reflecting a -3.0% decline since the market peaked in June 2022…As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken.”