Mortgage originations are expected to fall in 2022 compared to 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Forecast…(MBA)
- Mortgage originations are expected to fall to $2.59 trillion in 2022 – a 33% decline from 2021.
- Mortgage originations are expected to also fall in 2023 to $2.53 trillion.
This decline is entirely the result of a decline in refis. Purchases are expected to hit new records in both 2022 and 2023…
- Refinances are expected to fall under a trillion dollars in 2022 a 62% decline from the expected 2.26 trillion in 2021, which is a 14% decline from 2020.
- Purchases, meanwhile, are are expected to grow 9% to a new record of $1.73 trillion in 2022 and then jump another 7% in 2023 to $1.85 trillion.
Mortgages rates, like purchase originations, are expected to increase over the next two years…
- The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is expected to end 2021 at 3.1% before increasing to 4.0% by the end of 2022.
Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology, said 2022 should be a great year for homebuilding which will put some much-needed downward pressure on home prices which will be great news for wannabe homeowners…
- “Home builders will have more success overcoming current building material shortages and should be able to increase the pace of construction to meet the sizable demand for buying…More newly built homes and more homeowners listing their homes for sale should lead to some deceleration in home-price growth next year…”
TYLER’S TAKE: Rising rates, slowing home prices, and strong home building all seem like the perfect recipe for a stable housing market going forward.